Global emissions reached an all-time high in 2023, with temperatures 1.45 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, highlighting the urgent need for action to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degrees Celsius target.
Despite countries’ commitment to shift away from fossil fuels, demand for oil and gas continues to rise and is set to continue to increase until 2030.
The shift in the profile of emissions means that Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are now the primary contributors to emissions growth, which requires a necessary shift in climate strategies to address current and future emissions.
At the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI), we believe that there is a need to reframe the debate to tackle climate change and reduce global emissions. As developing countries pursue economic growth, it is crucial to ensure that energy consumption is met with clean energy solutions, balancing development needs with sustainability.
A new paper published by TBI ahead of COP29 outlines radical but practical solutions to tackle climate change, reduce global emissions and keep warming within 1.5 degrees. In ‘Reframing the Debate: Reimagining the Path to Global Climate Action’ Lindy Fursman, Tone Langengen and Dominic Molloy argue that central to this is technological development to make clean alternatives the convenient, cheaper and easier route to growth and development, and accelerating investment and finance into low carbon alternatives around the world. Two key solutions will make this happen:
Innovative, market-based approaches to drive the global energy transition, including harnessing the potential of international carbon markets.
Accelerating technology development and deployment for both mitigation and adaptation.
As the world’s climate negotiators head into COP29 in Baku, they must think about the climate challenge differently and focus on the practical solutions we need to put in place to limit temperature rise to well below two degrees. According to projections by the European Copernicus Climate Change Service, global average temperatures across the year are on track to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, making 2024 the first calendar year to surpass this significant threshold. It is a critical opportunity to secure agreement on both new global standards for carbon markets – Article 6 - and a new global finance goal – the new collective quantified goal.
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TBI Director of Climate and Energy Policy Lindy Fursman said: “There is an urgent need to address the record levels of global emissions. With only a small handful of years to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, it is essential that we transform country commitments into meaningful actions that benefit all nations. We need both finance and technology solutions, together with the government actions that enable the deployment of these solutions.”
TBI Director of Energy and Climate Advisory, Gareth Walsh said: “The technologies needed drive most of the necessary emissions reductions exist. In Many cases such as renewables they cost no more than their fossil fuel alternative. What is needed now is to align the politics, nationally and globally, around practical solutions to getting the money flowing to these solutions at scale”
TBI Senior Policy Advisor Tone Langengen said: “Developing countries continue to develop and pursue economic growth, and it is crucial that this development is aligned with clean energy solutions. High-income countries must focus on addressing the rapidly rising emissions from LMICs, as well as their own domestic decarbonisation.”
TBI Senior Advisor – Climate, Dominic Molloy said: “COP29 is a critical opportunity for global collaboration on climate action. Setting an ambitious climate finance goal and establishing new standards for carbon markets, will go far to mobilising the support developing nations need in their transition to low-carbon, climate resilient economies.”